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中午提到,在大盘持续小幅下跌十几天的位置上,投资者普遍已形成了短期的惯性思维,当再次面对上涨,多少都会有些犹豫,对于昨天一直到早盘收盘的走势较为客观的评价是,大盘在犹豫中止跌上涨。根据这一线索,再对照昨天分析,接下来一旦止跌得到市场普遍共识,上涨就应出现提速,最终引发一波上涨走势出现。

iP>以午后走势續a ,大盘将早盘的红盘震荡格局持续到收盘,最近两个交易日以两连阳报收。承接中午分析,对于接下来的市场走势,不但可以从投资者心态的角度进行分析,同时还可以从k线的角度进行分析。

iP>具体来说,虽然最近两天收出两连阳,但3069点以来的回落走势并未得到扭转。3069点至今大盘运行了16个交易日,以今天收盘价2978计算,大盘总共下跌了91点,平均每天只跌5.68点。可以看到虽然下跌时间长,但总体跌幅是很有限的,这表示大盘运行在一个缓慢下跌的走势中。这种走势不可能长期的维系下去,适当的时候必然会发生改变,这种走势被改变的结果只有两种,小跌变为大跌或止跌转涨。

iP>以目前k线走势續a ,小跌变为大跌的标准是单日快速跌破2900点,并一直跌到280r点。在持续走低16个交易日的基础上又变速下跌到280r点,这个难度是非常大的,应视为小概率事件,因此大盘止跌转涨是大概率事件。

iP>对于投资者来说,近期市场是比较容易把握的,只要不出现变速下跌的情况,大盘是必然会再次上涨的。如果将周一打出的2931点到今天最高的ack1点这5r点的回升看做是止跌企稳过程,那么接下来大盘只要维持在这个区间内无法再次下跌,随时会改变近期的持续小幅下跌状态,再次出现上涨走势。

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